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Nick Howard, C.E.A.
President
Howard Graphic Equipment Ltd.
“You’re wrong!” – Words I have heard
too many times over the past couple
of years when visiting a printing
company to evaluate a used press. This particularly
irritated owner then echoed what
so many others have such a hard time believing,
“There is no way my machine
could be worth such a low amount. I have
always been able to sell my equipment for
as much or more than I paid for it.” |
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Believe me, I feel their pain, having
spent the past 40 years of my career both
as a re-seller of printing machinery, as well
as a certified appraiser. I come face to face
with executives seeking to understand
what their assets are worth, but not always
liking what they hear. I did not have the
heart to tell this printer that if he wanted I
could list his used press next to a Crosfield
Magnascan and Miehle Horizontal.
The printing industry is right now in the
midst a watershed moment, which is most
obviously being determined by the many
new forms of on-screen communications
and online media. It is quite clear that
printing’s fear of the demographic shift in
media consumption is now fully underway.
The public consumption – demand – of
graphic communications in terms of print
versus on-screen was always going to be determined
by age, not if but when younger
generations so tightly wound with the
World Wide Web took on the majority of
purchasing power in the economy.
Just as these Internet generations have
matured and stabilized, so has the World
Wide Web and all of the very cool devices
used to access it. All economies of the
Western World are starting to be powered
by professionals who have no affinity for
print, and our industry must quickly accept
this fact to stay relevant in the media
mix. We can no more stop the momentum
of on-screen communications than
the dramatic drop in the value of used
offset machinery, which is why most
commercial printers are seeing that the
industry has reached a watershed moment.
This is not an easy business environment
to accept, but lasting changes in
the valuation of offset equipment are
clearly underway.
Game-changing moments
Press manufacturers have seen this digital
communications environment coming
for years, in terms of overall market
shrinkage and in the ongoing potential
for offset. Granted most offset press makers
were taken off guard with the degree
of change underway, because of the huge
financial fallout, but the situation has
been hovering like a dark cloud for nearly
two decades.
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Arguably, one of the most important
moments in press evolution over the past
half-century came in 1990 with Xerox’s
introduction of its monochrome-based
DocuTech engine. For years, printers
viewed this machine as a fancy copier, but
most offset press makers were immediately
aware that they were facing a new
competitor – digital printing – that would
ultimately be better suited to the new
world of communications.
Xerox had been evolving its digitalprinting technology for decades, making a true breakthrough all the way back in 1959 with the 914 model, noted by the company as its first automatic plain paper copier. |
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Joseph Wilson, Xerox CEO from 1946 to
1966, with the company’s first automated
copier, Xerox 914, a key piece of printing
machinery evolution. |
At
the same time, of course, offset machinery
was also evolving by leaps and bounds to
reflect market needs, whether focused on
adding more colour, quality, speed or automation.
For example, although Heidelberg
did not invent or even build the first
8-colour 4/4 perfector, the German giant is
rightly credited with developing a workable,
productive machine. This was also a
game-changing moment in the traditional
commercial-printing sector.
Long perfectors, as these presses are
sometimes called, have, in their own way,
hastened the deterioration of assembly-line
machine manufacturing. Throughout the
late-1980s and early-90s (before the advent
of online, at least in the sphere of the general
public, and despite the meteoric rise of
personal computing) competition in the
business of communications was still only
taking place amongst the various methods
of printing, as press makers and printers
alike tried to determine what would be the
right technology for the future.
The long perfector, for example, essentially
wiped out the non-process colour
market in favour of full colour, because
work could suddenly be produced for the
same price as monochrome jobs – often
for even less price. Then with the arrival
of computer-to-plate imaging, predominantly
and proudly developed out of
Creo’s Vancouver facility in the 1980s,
print manufacturing became relatively
quick and cheap by the 1990s, just as
Xerox was starting to exert its DocuTech
changes on the market, enhanced of
course by the arrival of Benny Landa’s Indigo
press design in 1995. Similar to the
effect of long perfectors, the Indigo machine
showed it would soon be possible
to produce full-colour digital as cheaply
as monochrome digital.
With the official launch of Heidelberg’s
powerful SM 102-8P during drupa 1995, I
suspect that many of the company’s executives,
while they understood this press
would be game-changing, also felt its arrival
marked the end of an era. That the arrival
of this impressive new press was hitting a
market peak, soon to be followed by an unheard
of decline in offset press manufacturing
going forward, although nobody
from any of the big press makers could have
predicted when such an environment
would truly take hold.
As we now read Heidelberg’s quarterly
financial statements, the company, along
with all of the other major press makers,
are publicly stating that they cannot expect
to build and sell nearly as many machines
as in the past. Much of the
attention around the decline in offset
press manufacturing is certainly placed
on Heidelberg, because of its long history
as being the largest press maker and its
sudden financial challenges, but make no
mistake, all of these giant manufacturers
are facing similar challenges.
The press makers have in fact been trying
to adjust their manufacturing focus
for a couple of years now. Gone, or nearly
gone, from all of the major press builders
are the 4-colour, 5-colour and 6-colour
machines with, for example, 2/4 perfecting
capabilities. These presses are now replaced
with coaters as the essential
feature. As of late, various builders have
also thrown in the towel on what might
be referred to as basic machines. These
presses were essentially stripped of certain
automation and delivered to price conscious
printers. Such machines, in
reality, carried the same press architecture
but were targeted at particular rogue
players ready to undercut everyone in the
market. But inevitably, this environment
was going to hit a dead end, which I believe
is where we are now all standing, and
it is becoming very difficult to breakthrough
or to find a new direction.
Market-defining moments
How does any company of huge manufacturing
proportions deal with an evershrinking
market base? This is a question
that all the big-iron players are now dealing
with. Some have decided to focus
their growth on building larger XXL format
machines, but even they would be
quick to point out that this is a relatively
small market already with a stable install
base. While many market surveys have
been published indicating that this extra large
offset format is growing in popularity,
the reality is that advancing such press
technology is very expensive in terms of
R&D spend.
We also hear a lot about the benefits of
lean manufacturing, which is certainly a
viable strategy but one that is really a formula
of dollars-and-cents for large-size
printers and a formula of common sense
for most small- to -medium-sized printers.
In other words, in pressrooms where
large print runs still take place lean manufacturing
takes hold because every cent
saved multiplies, every hour shaved
means margins.
Meanwhile, most traditional commercial
printers deal with a different manufacturing
axiom: Run lengths shorten,
pricing pressures remain constant and
manufacturing costs continue to escalate.
Both the builder of equipment and the
user are dealing with exactly the same issues.
Heidelberg could not afford to delay
the launch of the long perfector just as
Toyota could not delay the hybrid car. If
they didn’t someone else would.
Now with stability returning to the
printing industry, will there ever be as
many machines sold as before? That is a
question of which the answer may very
well be no. One 8-colour perfector can
out work two or three straight 4- and 5-
colour presses if the work is all colour
which most of it is. That alone should indicate
the units sold per year will be less.
The other important ingredient is speed
and make-ready. These presses all outperform
technologically deficient equipment
made even five years ago.
The press boardrooms in Augsburg, Heidelberg,
Offenbach and Tokyo are busy determining
the next steps in how to bring
offset equipment to market. Make no mistake,
these are major decisions being made
today about the true future of printing,
whether focused on various factory reductions,
changes in R&D spend, or ultimately
determining how to key facilities to build
certain machines.
Most of the press makers are looking very
hard at alternate forms of imaging, which
can be integrated into 29- and 40-inch format
presses, run at high speeds and produce
virtually zero waste. For example,
based on Heidelberg’s relationship with
Gallus, or Komori’s Chambon subsidiary,
packaging printers may one day soon see
press technologies that feed from a roll and
completely finish a box.
With all of these press makers so intently
focused on upgrading performance,
their recent innovations have a significant
impact on the pricing of used machinery.
The general malaise in the Canadian and
U.S. markets seems to have created an environment
in which only printers in developing
countries are searching for used
equipment. This situation, along with
higher technology demands here in North
America, have led to a free fall in values as
only those foreign customers with smaller
budgets are bidding. This is a major reason
why prices are so low.
Price-adjusting moments
Further pressure is placed on the price of
used press, because of the fact that new
equipment has never sold for less in this
country. Today, meanwhile, printers cannot
afford to invest in old technology, if
they hope to remain competitive not just
with fellow printers but also with the immediacy
and relatively cheap cost of producing
on-screen communications.
The cost of printing has dropped so
much that older presses are not capable
of producing a profit. The way forward is
pretty clear: If our industry does not
search out for the most-advanced equipment,
we can never maintain our place in
the communications mix.
Of course, this introduces another
major hurdle in that the availability of financing
has become a major roadblock
for most printers hoping to make new
capital investments. Several key lenders
have either retrenched or are exiting the
printing industry.
However, there is enough stability back
in the economy so that credit is loosening
up and, at the end of the day, this general
lack of access to financing does have a silver
lining for printers who have been running
a fiscally responsible business for years. I seriously
doubt we will ever again see the day
when the generosity of press manufacturers
puts a start-up printer in business for
the sake of market share. I worry, however,
that even with more positive signs starting
to emerge for the industry, some printing
companies may still not accept the need for
modernization in the pressroom.
Nick Howard, C.E.A.
President
Howard Graphic Equipment Ltd.
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